As Cisco gears up to host the largest customer forum in the UAE, Cisco Expo 2012, the company released the findings of the Cisco® Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2011 to 2016 which projects that the Middle East and Africa will have the highest regional mobile data traffic growth rate with a CAGR of 104 percent, or 36-fold growth.
The expected sharp increase in mobile traffic is due, in part, to a projected surge in the number of mobile Internet-connected devices, which will exceed the number of people on earth (2016 world population estimate of 7.3 billion; source: United Nations). Over 2011−2016 Cisco anticipates that global mobile data traffic will outgrow global fixed data traffic by three times.
The forecast predicts an annual run rate of 130 exabytes of mobile data traffic, equivalent to:
33 billion DVDs.
4.3 quadrillion MP3 files (music/audio).
813 quadrillion short message service (SMS) text messages.
An exabyte is a unit of information or computer storage equal to 1 quintillion bytes.
This mobile data traffic increase represents a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 78 percent spanning the forecast period. The incremental amount of traffic being added to the mobile Internet between 2015 and 2016 alone is approximately three times the estimated size of the entire mobile Internet in 2012. The following trends are driving these significant increases:
More Streamed Content: With consumers increasingly requiring on-demand or streamed content versus simply downloaded content, mobile cloud traffic will increase, growing 28-fold from 2011 to 2016, a CAGR of 95 percent.
More Mobile Connections: There will be more than 10 billion mobile Internet-connected devices in 2016, including machine-to-machine (M2M) modules – exceeding the world’s projected population at that time of 7.3 billion.
Enhanced Computing of Devices: Mobile devices are becoming more powerful and thus able to consume and generate more data traffic. Tablets are a prime example of this trend generating traffic levels that will grow 62-fold from 2011 to 2016 – the highest growth rate of any device category tracked in the forecast. The amount of mobile data traffic generated by tablets in 2016 (1 exabyte per month) will be four times the total amount of monthly global mobile data traffic in 2010 (237 petabytes per month).
Faster Mobile Speeds: Mobile network connection speed is a key enabler for mobile data traffic growth. More speed means more consumption, and Cisco projects mobile speeds (including 2G, 3G and 4G networks) to increase nine-fold from 2011 to 2016.
More Mobile Video: Mobile users want the best experiences they can have and that generally means mobile video, which will comprise 71 percent of all mobile data traffic by 2016.
Attendees to Cisco Expo UAE 2012 will have the opportunity to learn more about the latest findings of the Cisco Visual Networking Index Report and other advanced technology solutions and trends that are set to transform the IT landscape in the Middle East. Cisco Expo UAE 2012 will take place on Monday, March 19th 2012, at Atlantis, The Palm in Dubai.