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Cisco’s VNI Forecast Projects The Internet Will Be Four Times Larger By 2016

June 18, 2012
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In Middle East and Africa, peak Internet traffic will grow 13-fold from 2010 to 2015, a compound annual growth rate of 66{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10}

Today, Cisco® issued results of the annual Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast (2011-20156), the company’s ongoing initiative to forecast and analyze Internet Protocol (IP) networking growth and trends worldwide.
The VNI Forecast update covers 2011-2016, and quantitatively projects the significant amount of IP traffic expected to travel public and private networks, including Internet, managed IP, and mobile data traffic generated by consumers and business users:
According to the Forecast:

  • In Middle East and Africa, IP traffic will grow 8-fold from 2010 to 2015, a compound annual growth rate of 52{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10}..
  • Middle East and Africa’s IP traffic in 2015 will be equivalent to 6 billion DVDs per year, 505 million DVDs per month, or 691,466 DVDs per hour.
  • In 2015, the gigabyte equivalent of all movies ever made will cross Middle East and Africa’s IP networks every 3 hours.
  • In Middle East and Africa, Internet traffic will grow 9-fold from 2010 to 2015, a compound annual growth rate of 56{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10}.
  • In Middle East and Africa, peak Internet traffic will grow 13-fold from 2010 to 2015, a compound annual growth rate of 66{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10}.
  • Middle Eastern and African Internet traffic in 2015 will be equivalent to 98x the volume of the entire Middle Eastern and African Internet in 2005.
  • In Middle East and Africa, average Internet traffic will reach 5 Tbps in 2015, the equivalent of 4,500,000 people streaming Internet HD video simultaneously.
  • In Middle East and Africa, busy hour Internet traffic will reach 17 Tbps in 2015, the equivalent of 13,890,000 people streaming Internet HD video simultaneously

This significant level of traffic growth and service penetration is driven by primary number of factors, including:

  1. An increasing number of devices: The proliferation of tablets, mobile phones, and other smart devices as well as machine-to-machine (M2M) connections are driving up the demand for connectivity. By 2016, there will be nearly 18.9 billion network connections―almost 2.5 connections for each person on earth, – compared with 10.3 billion in 2011
  2. More Internet users: By 2016, there will 3.4 billion Internet users ─about 45 percent of the world’s projected population according to United Nations estimates.
  3. Faster broadband speeds: The average fixed broadband speed is expected to increase nearly four-fold, from 9 Mbps in 2011 to 35 Mbps in 2016.
  4. More video: By 2016, 1.2 million video minutes―the equivalent of 833 days (or over two years) ―will travel the Internet every second.
  5. Wi-fi growth: By 2016, over half of the world’s Internet traffic will come from wi-fi connections.


Global IP Traffic and Device Highlights:
Regional IP Traffic Trends

  • By 2016, the Asia Pacific region will generate the most IP traffic (40.5 exabytes per month), maintaining the top spot over North America (27.5 exabytes per month) which generated the second most amount of traffic.
  • The fastest-growing IP-traffic regions for the forecast period (2011 – 2016) are the Middle East and Africa (58 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR), for ten-fold growth), and Latin America (49 percent CAGR, seven-fold growth).
  • For fastest growing IP traffic at the country-level, India will have the highest IP traffic growth rate with a 62{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10} CAGR from 2011 – 2016. In a second place tie, Brazil and South Africa both have 53{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10} CAGRs over the forecast period.
  • By 2016, the highest traffic-generating countries will be the United States (22 exabytes per month) and China (12 exabytes per month).

Major Growth Driver: Consumer Video

  • Globally, there will be 1.5 billion Internet video users by 2016, up from 792 million Internet video users in 2011.

Global Device Growth

  • By 2016, there will be nearly 18.9 billion network connections―almost 2.5 connections for each person on earth.
  • In 2011, PCs generated 94{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10} of consumer Internet traffic. This contribution will fall to 81{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10} by 2016―demonstrating the impact that an increasing number and variety of devices like tablets, smartphones ,etc. are having on how consumers and businesses access and use the Internet.
  • By 2016, TVs will account for over 6{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10} of global consumer Internet traffic (up from 4{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10} in 2011), and 18{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10} of Internet video traffic (up from 7{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10} in 2011)―demonstrating the impact of web-enabled TVs as a viable online option for many consumers.

IPv6 Capable Devices and Connections

  • Globally, there will be 8 billion IPv6-capable fixed and mobile devices in 2016, up from 1 billion in 2011.
  • Globally, 40{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10} of all fixed and mobile networked devices will be IPv6-capable in 2016, up from 10{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10} in 2011.


3DTV and HD (Advanced Video)

  • Global advanced video traffic, including three-dimensional (3-D) and high-definition TV (HDTV), is projected to increase 5 times between 2011 and 2016.


Mobile Broadband

  • Global mobile Internet data traffic will increase 18 times from 2011 to 2016, to 10.8 exabytes per month (or 130 exabytes annually).


Global File Sharing

  • By 2016, global peer-to-peer traffic will account for 54 percent of global consumer Internet file sharing traffic, down from 77 percent in 2011. On a quantity basis, however, the amount of peer-to-peer traffic is increasing from 4.6 exabytes per month in 2011 to 10 exabytes per month by 2016.

Global Business IP Traffic

  • Business IP video conferencing is projected to grow sixfold over the forecast period, growing more than two times as fast as overall business IP traffic, at a CAGR of 42 percent from 2011 to 2016.


Global Addressable Market and Service Adoption Highlights

Residential

  • Globally , there were 1.7 billion residential Internet users with fixed Internet access in 2011; there will be 2.3 billion residential Internet users with fixed Internet access by 2016.
  • Globally, Digital TV will be the fastest growing digital television service with 694 million subscribers in 2011; there will be 1.3 billion subscribers in 2016.
  • Globally, voice over IP (VoIP) will be the fastest growing residential internet service with 560 million users in 2011; there will be 928 million users in 2016.
  • Globally, Online Music will be the most highly penetrated residential Internet service ―in 2011 there were 1.1 billion users (63{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10} of residential Internet users); in 2016 there will be 1.8 billion users (79{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10} of residential Internet users).


Consumer Mobile

  • Globally, mobile consumers will grow from 3.7 billion in 2011 to 4.5 billion by 2016.
  • Globally, Mobile Video will be the fastest growing consumer mobile service with 271 million users in 2011; there will be 1.6 billion users in 2016.
  • Globally, consumer SMS will be the most highly penetrated consumer mobile service―in 2011, there were 2.8 billion users (74 percent of consumer mobile users), increasing to 4.1 billion users (90 percent of consumer mobile users) by 2016.


Business

  • Globally, business Internet users will grow from 1.6 billion in 2011 to 2.3 billion by 2016.
  • Globally, desktop videoconferencing will be the fastest-growing service, with 36.4 million users in 2011, increasing to 218.9 million users in 2016.
  • Globally, business mobile location-based services (LBS) will be the fastest-growing business mobile service, with 27 million user in 2011, increasing to 158 million users by 2016.

Supporting Quotes

Rabih Dabboussi, General Manager, Cisco UAE
“Times are certainly changing with VNI data projecting that there will be 72 million Internet households generating more than 200 gigabytes per month in 2016, and 19 billion networked devices. The network is more important today than any time in history, as more and more people rely on it everyday to live their lives and run their businesses.”
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Cisco VNI Forecast Methodology:

The annual Cisco VNI Forecast was developed to estimate global Internet Protocol traffic growth and trends. Widely used by service providers, regulators, and industry influencers alike, the Cisco VNI Forecast is based on in-depth analysis and modeling of traffic, usage and device data from independent analyst forecasts. Cisco validates its forecast, inputs and methodology with actual traffic data provided voluntarily by global service providers and more than one million consumers worldwide. The following Cisco VNI Forecast resources and tools are available online:

Historical VNI Forecast Perspective:

  • Historically, Cisco VNI projections have generally been viewed as conservative; however, the forecast has proven to be quite accurate throughout its six-year history.
  • When comparing past forecasts to estimated actual amounts in a given year, the Cisco VNI forecast typically ranges between 2{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10} to 10{e1f18614b95d3cd6e4b3128e1cd15d99b042a60a5a19c19b7a8e07e7495efa10} (on the conservative side).


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